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Objective: Obesity prevalence is increasing worldwide and it is nowadays considered a real public health problem. Obesity is associated with co-morbidities like cardiovascular diseases (CVD) and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), furthermore visceral obesity can be related to low testosterone (T) plasma levels. The link between obesity and hypogonadism (HG) is complex and not completely clarified. Current guidelines suggest that screening for HG should be done in subjects with obesity and T2DM. The aim of this evaluation is to assess the estimated actual and future prevalence of obesity and related co-morbidities, in particular HG, in the Italian general population. Materials and Methods: The Strategyst Consulting Inc. recently completed an epidemiology forecast model for several countries, looking at HG and CV/Metabolic Disease, based on National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) data collected between 1999-2010. Data from NHANES survey were used to evaluate the Italian estimated prevalence of obesity and HG. Results: Results show that obesity estimated prevalence will increase in 2030 also in Italy. In addition, also the prevalence of obese CVD and T2DM subjects will increase too. Even Italian HG prevalence is estimated to increase in the next two decades, irrespective of T threshold considered (< 8, 10 and 12 nmol/L). In obese CVD subjects the relative risk (RR) of developing HG (T < 8 nmol/L) is four times greater than in not-CVD obese subjects (RR = 4.1, 3.1 and 1.9 accordingly to the aforementioned T thresholds for defining HG). Accordingly, the estimated percentage of hypogonadal obese CVD and T2DM subjects will rise in 2030. Conclusions: The Strategyst epidemiology forecast model has allowed to assess the current and future prevalence of obesity and its relative co-morbidities like HG in Italy. Data emerged from this evaluation suggest that obesity and HG prevalence will increase in Italian population and confirm the complex link between adipose tissue and male T levels.
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