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BEST STRATEGY FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SEISMIC PREVENTION PLAN

Enzo Mantovani, Marcello Viti, Daniele Babbucci, Caterina Tamburelli, Nicola Cenni
  • Enzo Mantovani
    Dipartimento di Scienze Fisiche, della Terra e dell’Ambiente, Università di Siena, Italy | enzo.mantovani@unisi.it
  • Marcello Viti
    Dipartimento di Scienze Fisiche, della Terra e dell’Ambiente, Università di Siena, Italy
  • Daniele Babbucci
    Dipartimento di Scienze Fisiche, della Terra e dell’Ambiente, Università di Siena, Italy
  • Caterina Tamburelli
    Dipartimento di Scienze Fisiche, della Terra e dell’Ambiente, Università di Siena, Italy
  • Nicola Cenni
    Dipartimento di Fisica e Astronomia, Università di Bologna, Italy

Abstract

An effective mitigation of seismic risk in Italy can hardly be obtained without a tentative recognition of few priority zones, where the limited resources available in the short term can be concentrated. A reliable recognition of the zones where the probability of major earthquakes is highest must be carried out by a deterministic approach, exploiting the profound knowledge acquired about the present seismotectonic context in the zones involved. Some years ago, this kind of procedure led us to identify the central-northern Apennines (i.e. the zone hit by the recent major earthquakes, 2016 and 2017) as the Italian area most prone to next strong shocks. The reliability of the methodology here proposed is also supported by the fact that the implications of the adopted tectonic setting can provide plausible and coherent explanations for the spatio-temporal distribution of major earthquakes in the central Mediterranean area in the last six centuries.

Keywords

Seismic Hazard, Prevention, Seismotectonics

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Submitted: 2017-07-26 13:28:08
Published: 2017-07-27 11:37:23
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Copyright (c) 2016 Enzo Mantovani, Marcello Viti, Daniele Babbucci, Caterina Tamburelli, Nicola Cenni

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